Thursday, May 31, 2012

Uber bear sees value in Europe


Russel Napier, author of 'Anatomy of the Bear' speaks to the FT: 
http://video.ft.com/v/1655932538001/Uber-bear-sees-value-in-Europe
  • Vast discrepancies in global equity pricing. S&P would be at 400 were it to reach its historical lows in cyclically adjusted PE ratios. European equities on the other hand are reaching those lows, so over 10 years they may offer the best returns.
  • The trigger will be when a European central bank is enfranchised to reflate the economy, even if this happens at a national rather than the ECB. Equities may not actually drop that much if the Euro collapses.
  • Equities at this level are discounting bankruptcy and not much else - unless private assets are repossessed by national governments or destroyed by unrest or war then as soon as inflation comes back the bankruptcy risk disappears.
  • Should we buy Greek equity? If you can find good companies you should buy them in the most distressed areas.
  • Money printing in the U.S. undermines confidence. U.S. debt is owned by foreigners, in particular China.  The yuan is not longer undervalued, and may well become overvalued - if that happens China will start selling Treasuries making it difficult for the U.S. government to fund itself.